DisruptionThree days until the end of the year, and two until the end of the world, if you believe the Mayans. Every other man and his dog are making 2013 predictions so I thought I’d have a bash at it as well.

Security will dominate ICT in Government

The machinery of government takes a while to get rolling but when it does it has some serious mass. Expect to see Security front and centre on the desk of every CIO in government and then by proxy, on the suppliers and vendors.

Expect to see the government asking CIO’s to sign their lives away stating that their security is adequate along with changes to senior ICT job descriptions to attempt to introduce some accountability.

Government ICT spending will slow to a crawl

Partly driven by the sudden increase in the priority of security and partially driven by the continued financial constraints the amount of money being spent of ICT will decrease further. Even government organisations who have money for projects are going to find it hard to spend as the number of permanent employees moving from government to private, government to contract, government to Australia, and career changes will increase further. Continued caps on being able to pay staff what they are worth coupled with the edict to employee staff on a fixed-term employment basis will continue to drive a drain of good ICT resource out of government and slow the ability to introduce change.

Vodafone and TelstraClear will spend the year consolidating

Don’t expect to see too much out of these guys until down toward the end of 2013.

The UFB will continue at a snail’s pace

Yeah I know, I should make some wild and crazy predictions, but this one has to be in here. Chorus is still organising itself and trying to differentiate itself from the mothership it calved off. There are still those pesky contracts and costs to be worked out as well. Don’t expect to see a Chorus van in your street anytime this year.

SME’s will start a revolution around access to government ICT contracts

New Zealand SME’s are being locked out, they say, of lucrative government ICT contracts. Citing compliance costs, the panel system, and expensive requirements to engage, SME’s will get some mass behind them with the opposition pushing hard and the incumbent government looking for positive points to score heading down in election year. New Zealand Inc. is suffering at the hands of over zealous probity and they’re getting mad about it.

Xbox 720 is released

By far and away the most important prediction of the year, this wonderful new device will kick the PS4 into touch, also expected to come out this year, and the stress levels of ICT workers will reduce globally.

Cloud uptake will remain low and slow

Despite the continued attention and international promotion of Cloud, most companies in New Zealand are likely to adopt a cautious planning approach given the maturity of the offerings locally and the concern around data sovereignty. The early adopters will be watched with great interest as the local providers struggle to compete at a cost and service point that is attractive.

The CIO will admit defeat in the battle to manage BYOD

The enemies are already inside the walls with 64% of staff surveyed recently in an international study saying that they used BYOD and had downloaded apps within their corporate environment. CIO’s will realise that the movement can’t be controlled and figure out that most of their staff are already on Gmail, Hotmail, DropBox, LinkedIn, Mozy, and a host of other Cloud based services and security be damned. Corporate borders will shrink and information security classification will increase. CIO’s will struggle to control the business themselves simply buying and utilising these services. Smart operators will provide business with individual applications that are comparable to the current market offerings.

The gap between CIO and their business leaders will widen

ICT organisations who do not start to adopt a standardised service delivery methodology and change the structure of their teams will find themselves relegated to basement IT Managers. The business will drive over the top of and around them as the number of pure ICT services matures in the market. Vendors will be talking to the CE, CFO, and COO, rather than the CIO. Business line managers will continue to embrace the service catalogue approach to ICT and build self-service that is managed at business unit level as opposed to a centralised ICT approach.

The rate of outsourcing will decrease

With a massive shift over the past two years in outsourcing. Companies changing suppliers, companies moving to outsourcing, and companies moving to multi-service models, with the disruption and uncertainty around ICT the rate of change will slow significantly. Cloud creates confusion while security digs its teeth into change from traditional models. Companies retreat to the bunker to plan next moves.

 

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